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Premier League Betting Edge - Advantage Ratings, Logic and Modeling for the EPL

English Premier League soccer betting projections, analysis, and picks using advanced soccer ratings and data. The show reviews the top predictive English Premier League probability models. The predictive models used to gain a betting edge are from CDSA, Bing,Five Thirty Eight sports and Bet Devil. The podcast also looks at English Premier League team performance vs. the betting market.
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Premier League Betting Edge - Advantage Ratings, Logic and Modeling for the EPL
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Now displaying: December, 2017
Dec 22, 2017

Ho! Ho! Ho! for MW19 as BaseWinner plays Santa and goes over the whole card with the help of expected goals Crunch modeling. The are several nice spots by the numbers on this one.

BW is high on the SHAG model and there are some interesting underlying stats looked at, particularly in the Arsenal v. Liverpool game. 

The Premier League will be in high gear for the Holiday season and team CDSI has you covered. 

Basewinner looks at the per game expected goal split ratings and projections. He also analyzes a four-model comparison to show you where the betting value is for the complete 10 game card.

 

 

 

 

Dec 16, 2017

Exciting news for MW18 as BW introduces high powered expected goals probability modeling to uncover an extremely valuable play. He also reveals the first ever EPL "Metrics Mike" special.

The SHAG model is new but has already been improved thanks to the Basewinner's discovery of understat.com. If you haven't heard of understat.com, it is your lucky day.

Basically, Basewinner has been on a stat induced high for the last 4 days as this site will be able to fuel a Crunch style Premier League goal projection with some incredibly valuable shot data. 

As usual, PLBR is loaded with stats, ratings and evaluations and we show you three value plays on the MW18 podcast.

Basewinner looks at the per game expected goal split ratings and projections. He also analyzes a four-model comparison to show you where the betting value is for the following games:

Leicester City v. Crystal Palace 

Manchester City v. Tottenham

West Brom v. Manchester United

The four models are a last 6 goal differential module (G6) and the Bing, Five Thirty Eight and Bet Devil predictive models. Also, the top public bet of the week is looked at.

Dec 12, 2017

A quick turnaround to MW17 but the PLBR Podcast has you covered. The MW17 midweek podcast introduces the new SHAG model and is loaded with stats, ratings and evaluations.

We show you three value plays on the MW17 podcast, Shots/Goal conversion splits and model reports and results.

Basewinner looks at the in-house CDSI ratings and projections. He also analyzes a four-model comparison to show you where the betting value is for the following games:

Huddersfield v. Chelsea 

Swansea City v. Manchester City

Liverpool v. West Brom 

The models we look at in this podcast are from well respected data accumulators, number-crunchers and presenters.

Included is a highly studied last 6 goal differential module (G6) and the Bing, Five Thirty Eight and Bet Devil predictive models.

Dec 8, 2017

MW16 PLBR Podcast is loaded with stats, ratings and evaluations We show you three value plays on the MW16 podcast plus power ratings and model reports and results.

Basewinner looks at the in-house CDSI ratings and projections. He also analyzes the five-model comparison to show you where the betting value is for the following games:

West Ham v. Chelsea 

Swansea City v. West Brom

Newcastle v. Leicester City

The models we look at in this podcast are from well respected data accumulators, number-crunchers and presenters.

Included is a highly studied last 6 goal differential module (G6) and the Bing, Five Thirty Eight and Bet Devil predictive models.

Also- EPL teams with the best ROI and overvalued and undervalued teams based on their odds and Squawka scores

Dec 2, 2017

MW15 PLBR Podcast is loaded with stats, ratings and evaluations We show you three value plays on the MW15 podcast plus power ratings and model reports and results.

Basewinner looks at the in-house CDSI ratings and projections. He also analyzes the five-model comparison to show you where the betting value is for the following games:

Arsenal v. Man United 

Watford v. Tottenham

West Brom v. Crystal Palace

The models we look at in this podcast are from well respected data accumulators, number-crunchers and presenters.

Included is a highly studied last 6 goal differential module (G6) and the Bing, Five Thirty Eight and Bet Devil predictive models.

Also- EPL teams with the best ROI and overvalued and undervalued teams based on their odds and Squawka scores.

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