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Premier League Betting Edge - Advantage Ratings, Logic and Modeling for the EPL

English Premier League soccer betting projections, analysis, and picks using advanced soccer ratings and data. The show reviews the top predictive English Premier League probability models. The predictive models used to gain a betting edge are from CDSA, Bing,Five Thirty Eight sports and Bet Devil. The podcast also looks at English Premier League team performance vs. the betting market.
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Premier League Betting Edge - Advantage Ratings, Logic and Modeling for the EPL
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Now displaying: 2018
Dec 21, 2018

On this week's episode, two Matchweek 18 games are analyzed. Riley & Mark dig into the stand alone Friday Wolves v Liverpool game with advanced stats. They review the key numbers the model generates for this game and talk about potential tactics.

The guys also talk about Bournemouth v. Brighton. Riley talks about the team component ratings ratings that create the projected number and Mark supports by reviewing the two model 3 Way projections.

As a bonus, Mark and Riley give out a goal scorer -winner - total for the MW 18 card that is a biggin at +875 potential payoff.

If you want advanced analysis that will help you make your calls for the upcoming EPL weekend, this podcast is for you.

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com

Dec 19, 2018

Introduction episode to the Clear Data Sports College Basketball Betting Model. You can view the overview page here: 

Dec 14, 2018

On this week's episode, two big Matchweek 17 games are analyzed. Riley & Mark dig into big Liverpool game with advanced stats. They review the key numbers the model generates for this game and talk about potential tactics.

The guys also talk about Fulham v. West Ham. Riley and he talks about the team component ratings ratings that create the projected number.

As a bonus, Mark and Riley give out a goal scorer -winner - total for the MW 17 card that has a +229 potential payoff.

If you want advanced analysis that will help you make your calls for the upcoming EPL weekend, this podcast is for you.

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com

Dec 13, 2018

You get the deep tracks on this one. Riley and Mark recap EPL MW 16 and UCL, plus some soccer and college basketball modeling discussion.

You will find out which teams got lucky, who "should have" won by the underlying stats and if we can learn anything from the week's results.

Also, Mark and Riley talk about the modeling process, an update on the new CDSA College Basketball model (40:20) and Riley talks about his upcoming journey to hallowed EPL grounds.

Dec 7, 2018

The MW 16 card is loaded with totals and the podcast showcases two of the CDSA official plays for this round.

We spotlight the feature game of Chelsea v. Man City and then have a sneaky take on the Cardiff v. Southampton total as well as a parlay idea that pays 17-1.

Riley Wichmann, the CDSA Data Wizard, has put in hard work over the 24 hours to keep up eith the double rounds and has the model ticking.

Riley and Mark go deep into the Chelsea v. Man City numbers and give you a solid play in this one.

Also, the CDSA MW 15 is recapped. Riley gives you his take on what he saw and learned midweek and Mark talks about his experience betting this round.

In addition, Riley uncovers a valuable parlay on the card that pays 17-1 and could make your weekend.

Dec 3, 2018

MW 15 offers a handicapping challenge because of the quick turn around.

However, the hardest working man in the EPL handicapping business has updated the EPL model and the MW15 numbers have been crunched and are ready for you to enjoy. 

Riley goes deep into the Man U v. Arsenal numbers and deals out a play that could be your ace for the midweek card.

Also, the CDSA MW 14 is recapped and Riley gives you his take on what he saw and learned.

As a bonus, get some interesting mid-week EPL stats that could give you an edge and will definitely make you popular with all of the hot EPL stat women.

In addition, Mark gives out a play that could make your Wednesday with a parlay that pays +725.

 

 

 

Nov 30, 2018

On this week's episode, two Matchweek 14 games are analyzed. Riley & Mark dig into the Arsenal v. Spurs game with advanced stats. They review the numbers the model generates for this game and talk about potential tactics.

Riley breaks down the Spurs lineup and goes over what he anticipates.

The guys also talk about Huddersfield v. Brighton. This match is not sexy, but Riley highlights the model's projections and he thinks this game contains a play that is a hidden gem.

Mark also chimes in with some interesting betting stats regarding Huddersfield.

As a bonus, BW gives out a goal scorer - winner parlay for the MW 14 card that has a +245 potential payoff.

If you want advanced analysis that will help you make your calls for the upcoming EPL weekend, this podcast is for you.

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com

Nov 28, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Brighton v. Leicester

Everton v. Cardiff

Fulham v. Southampton

Manchester United v. Crystal Palace

Watford v. Liverpool

West Ham v. Manchester City

Tottenham v. Chelsea

Bournemouth v. Arsenal

Wolverhampton v. Huddersfield

Burnley v. Newcastle

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Nov 21, 2018

On this week's episode, two big Matchweek 13 games are analyzed. Riley & Mark dig into the Man City game with advanced stats. They review the numbers the model generates for this game and talk about potential tactics.

Also, Mark reveals a number that is very interesting regarding Manchester City totals.

The guys also talk about Spurs v. Chelsea. Riley loves this play and he talks about the team component ratings ratings that create the projected number and 25% market edge.

As a bonus, BW gives out a goal scorer -winner - total for the MW 13 card that has a +675 potential payoff.

If you want advanced analysis that will help you make your calls for the upcoming EPL weekend, this podcast is for you.

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com

Nov 16, 2018

Does the international break have you feeling down, lonely and depressed?

Have no fear, Mark and Riley will brighten your week with this episode. 

Mark scopes out the futures board and with the help of Riley's unique BAR numbers, he identifies the value plays in the To Win League, Relegation and Goal Scorer market.

Caution: A couple of bombs are thrown out that could rattle the soccer hipster community. 

Also, Riley waxes poetic about key EPL stats he has derived and gives you his take to help you anticipate further league action.

 

Nov 12, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Cardiff v. Brighton

Huddersfield v. West Ham

Leicester v. Burnley

Newcastle v. Bournemouth

Southampton v. Watford

Crystal Palace v. Tottenham

Liverpool v. Fulham

Chelsea v. Everton

Arsenal v. Wolverhampton

Manchester City v. Manchester United

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

 

Nov 9, 2018

 

On this week's episode, the Manchester Derby is dissected. Riley digs into this game with advanced stats, reviews the numbers the model generates for this game and talk about potential tactics.

Also, Man City's unique Ball Advancement Rating (BAR) numbers are discussed in depth and Riley talks about what it could mean for Sunday's game.

We also talk about a nice value play involving Newcastle and Bournemouth. BW loves this play and the analysis that creates the projected number is reviewed.

As a bonus, BW gives out a goal scorer and winner for the MW 12 card that has a +347 potential payoff.

If you want advanced analysis that will help you make your calls for the upcoming EPL weekend, this podcast is for you.

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com

Nov 7, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Bournemouth v. Manchester United

Cardiff v. Leicester

Everton v. Brighton

West Ham v. Burnley

Newcastle v. Watford

Arsenal v. Liverpool

Wolverhampton v. Tottenham

Manchester City v. Southampton

Chelsea v. Crystal Palace

Huddersfield v. Fulham

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Nov 2, 2018

New Podcast is LIVE: Mark & Riley EPL Update: 

Inside the pod, we review the updated 2018 EPL model, including a review of:

  • 538 Soccer model - number of goals a team would score against an average team
  • Expected goals - probability of scoring from a shot based on position and defender location (and the specific player taking the shot)


Riley also goes into his new *Tactical* rating system, attempting to quantify: 

  • Ball Winning = Interceptions / Opponents possession
  • Fluidity Net =  Quality of expected goals vs quality of expected goals allowed
  • Attack Efficiency = Expected goals / Possession
  • Defense Efficiency  = Expected goals allowed  / Opp Possession
  • Ball Advancement Rating = Value each player adds to advancing the ball in each game 

The early results from the model are fantastic:

Moneyline:  28 plays, 50%, +5.03 units won
Over/Under: 26 plays, 62%, +7.33 units won
BTTS: 5 plays, 20%, -4.13 units won
Asian Handicap: 2 plays, 50%, +0.26 units won

Overall: 
EPL: 55 plays, 56%, +8.85 units
UCL: 7 plays, 28%, -0.36 units

 

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/epl-11-new-podcast-mark-riley-epl-update/

Oct 30, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Southampton v. Newcastle

Watford v. Huddersfield

Brighton v. Wolverhampton

Fulham v. Bournemouth

Liverpool v. Cardiff City

Leicester v. West Ham

Burnley v. Chelsea

Crystal Palace v. Arsenal

Manchester United v. Everton

Tottenham v. Manchester City

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Oct 25, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Southampton v. Newcastle

Watford v. Huddersfield

Brighton v. Wolverhampton

Fulham v. Bournemouth

Liverpool v. Cardiff City

Leicester v. West Ham

Burnley v. Chelsea

Crystal Palace v. Arsenal

Manchester United v. Everton

Tottenham v. Manchester City

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Oct 23, 2018

Matchups: 

 

 

Chelsea v. Manchester United

Bournemouth v. Southampton

Cardiff City v. Fulham

Manchester City v. Burnley

Newcastle v. Brighton

West Ham v. Tottenham

Wolverhampton v. Watford

Huddersfield v. Liverpool

Everton v. Crystal Palace

Arsenal v. Leicester

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Oct 18, 2018

Matchups: 

 

 

Chelsea v. Manchester United

Bournemouth v. Southampton

Cardiff City v. Fulham

Manchester City v. Burnley

Newcastle v. Brighton

West Ham v. Tottenham

Wolverhampton v. Watford

Huddersfield v. Liverpool

Everton v. Crystal Palace

Arsenal v. Leicester

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Oct 16, 2018

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Oct 9, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Brighton v. West Ham

Burnley v. Huddersfield

Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton

Leicester v. Everton

Tottenham v. Cardiff City

Watford v. Bournemouth

Manchester United v. Newcastle

Fulham v. Arsenal

Southampton v. Chelsea

Liverpool v. Manchester City

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Oct 4, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Brighton v. West Ham

Burnley v. Huddersfield

Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton

Leicester v. Everton

Tottenham v. Cardiff City

Watford v. Bournemouth

Manchester United v. Newcastle

Fulham v. Arsenal

Southampton v. Chelsea

Liverpool v. Manchester City

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Oct 2, 2018

Matchups: 

 

West Ham v. Manchester United

Wolverhampton v. Southampton

Arsenal v. Watford

Everton v. Fulham

Huddersfield v. Tottenham

Manchester City v. Brighton

Newcastle United v. Leicester

Chelsea v. Liverpool

Cardiff City v. Burnley

Bournemouth v. Crystal Palace

 

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Sep 27, 2018

Matchups: 

 

West Ham v. Manchester United

Wolverhampton v. Southampton

Arsenal v. Watford

Everton v. Fulham

Huddersfield v. Tottenham

Manchester City v. Brighton

Newcastle United v. Leicester

Chelsea v. Liverpool

Cardiff City v. Burnley

Bournemouth v. Crystal Palace

 

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Sep 24, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Fulham v. Watford

Leicester v. Huddersfield

Liverpool v. Southampton

Manchester United v. Wolverhampton

Burnley v. Bournemouth

Cardiff City v. Manchester City

Crystal Palace v. Newcastle United

Brighton v. Tottenham

West Ham v. Chelsea

Arsenal v. Everton

 

 

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

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