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Premier League Betting Edge - Advantage Ratings, Logic and Modeling for the EPL

English Premier League soccer betting projections, analysis, and picks using advanced soccer ratings and data. The show reviews the top predictive English Premier League probability models. The predictive models used to gain a betting edge are from CDSA, Bing,Five Thirty Eight sports and Bet Devil. The podcast also looks at English Premier League team performance vs. the betting market.
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Now displaying: November, 2018
Nov 30, 2018

On this week's episode, two Matchweek 14 games are analyzed. Riley & Mark dig into the Arsenal v. Spurs game with advanced stats. They review the numbers the model generates for this game and talk about potential tactics.

Riley breaks down the Spurs lineup and goes over what he anticipates.

The guys also talk about Huddersfield v. Brighton. This match is not sexy, but Riley highlights the model's projections and he thinks this game contains a play that is a hidden gem.

Mark also chimes in with some interesting betting stats regarding Huddersfield.

As a bonus, BW gives out a goal scorer - winner parlay for the MW 14 card that has a +245 potential payoff.

If you want advanced analysis that will help you make your calls for the upcoming EPL weekend, this podcast is for you.

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com

Nov 28, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Brighton v. Leicester

Everton v. Cardiff

Fulham v. Southampton

Manchester United v. Crystal Palace

Watford v. Liverpool

West Ham v. Manchester City

Tottenham v. Chelsea

Bournemouth v. Arsenal

Wolverhampton v. Huddersfield

Burnley v. Newcastle

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Nov 21, 2018

On this week's episode, two big Matchweek 13 games are analyzed. Riley & Mark dig into the Man City game with advanced stats. They review the numbers the model generates for this game and talk about potential tactics.

Also, Mark reveals a number that is very interesting regarding Manchester City totals.

The guys also talk about Spurs v. Chelsea. Riley loves this play and he talks about the team component ratings ratings that create the projected number and 25% market edge.

As a bonus, BW gives out a goal scorer -winner - total for the MW 13 card that has a +675 potential payoff.

If you want advanced analysis that will help you make your calls for the upcoming EPL weekend, this podcast is for you.

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com

Nov 16, 2018

Does the international break have you feeling down, lonely and depressed?

Have no fear, Mark and Riley will brighten your week with this episode. 

Mark scopes out the futures board and with the help of Riley's unique BAR numbers, he identifies the value plays in the To Win League, Relegation and Goal Scorer market.

Caution: A couple of bombs are thrown out that could rattle the soccer hipster community. 

Also, Riley waxes poetic about key EPL stats he has derived and gives you his take to help you anticipate further league action.

 

Nov 12, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Cardiff v. Brighton

Huddersfield v. West Ham

Leicester v. Burnley

Newcastle v. Bournemouth

Southampton v. Watford

Crystal Palace v. Tottenham

Liverpool v. Fulham

Chelsea v. Everton

Arsenal v. Wolverhampton

Manchester City v. Manchester United

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

 

Nov 9, 2018

 

On this week's episode, the Manchester Derby is dissected. Riley digs into this game with advanced stats, reviews the numbers the model generates for this game and talk about potential tactics.

Also, Man City's unique Ball Advancement Rating (BAR) numbers are discussed in depth and Riley talks about what it could mean for Sunday's game.

We also talk about a nice value play involving Newcastle and Bournemouth. BW loves this play and the analysis that creates the projected number is reviewed.

As a bonus, BW gives out a goal scorer and winner for the MW 12 card that has a +347 potential payoff.

If you want advanced analysis that will help you make your calls for the upcoming EPL weekend, this podcast is for you.

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com

Nov 7, 2018

Matchups: 

 

Bournemouth v. Manchester United

Cardiff v. Leicester

Everton v. Brighton

West Ham v. Burnley

Newcastle v. Watford

Arsenal v. Liverpool

Wolverhampton v. Tottenham

Manchester City v. Southampton

Chelsea v. Crystal Palace

Huddersfield v. Fulham

 

More sports betting analytics: https://www.cleardatasports.com/

Nov 2, 2018

New Podcast is LIVE: Mark & Riley EPL Update: 

Inside the pod, we review the updated 2018 EPL model, including a review of:

  • 538 Soccer model - number of goals a team would score against an average team
  • Expected goals - probability of scoring from a shot based on position and defender location (and the specific player taking the shot)


Riley also goes into his new *Tactical* rating system, attempting to quantify: 

  • Ball Winning = Interceptions / Opponents possession
  • Fluidity Net =  Quality of expected goals vs quality of expected goals allowed
  • Attack Efficiency = Expected goals / Possession
  • Defense Efficiency  = Expected goals allowed  / Opp Possession
  • Ball Advancement Rating = Value each player adds to advancing the ball in each game 

The early results from the model are fantastic:

Moneyline:  28 plays, 50%, +5.03 units won
Over/Under: 26 plays, 62%, +7.33 units won
BTTS: 5 plays, 20%, -4.13 units won
Asian Handicap: 2 plays, 50%, +0.26 units won

Overall: 
EPL: 55 plays, 56%, +8.85 units
UCL: 7 plays, 28%, -0.36 units

 

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/epl-11-new-podcast-mark-riley-epl-update/

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