Exciting news for MW18 as BW introduces high powered expected goals probability modeling to uncover an extremely valuable play. He also reveals the first ever EPL "Metrics Mike" special.
The SHAG model is new but has already been improved thanks to the Basewinner's discovery of understat.com. If you haven't heard of understat.com, it is your lucky day.
Basically, Basewinner has been on a stat induced high for the last 4 days as this site will be able to fuel a Crunch style Premier League goal projection with some incredibly valuable shot data.
As usual, PLBR is loaded with stats, ratings and evaluations and we show you three value plays on the MW18 podcast.
Basewinner looks at the per game expected goal split ratings and projections. He also analyzes a four-model comparison to show you where the betting value is for the following games:
Leicester City v. Crystal Palace
Manchester City v. Tottenham
West Brom v. Manchester United
The four models are a last 6 goal differential module (G6) and the Bing, Five Thirty Eight and Bet Devil predictive models. Also, the top public bet of the week is looked at.