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Premier League Betting Edge - Advantage Ratings, Logic and Modeling for the EPL

English Premier League soccer betting projections, analysis, and picks using advanced soccer ratings and data. The show reviews the top predictive English Premier League probability models. The predictive models used to gain a betting edge are from CDSA, Bing,Five Thirty Eight sports and Bet Devil. The podcast also looks at English Premier League team performance vs. the betting market.
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Now displaying: Page 1
Nov 2, 2018

New Podcast is LIVE: Mark & Riley EPL Update: 

Inside the pod, we review the updated 2018 EPL model, including a review of:

  • 538 Soccer model - number of goals a team would score against an average team
  • Expected goals - probability of scoring from a shot based on position and defender location (and the specific player taking the shot)


Riley also goes into his new *Tactical* rating system, attempting to quantify: 

  • Ball Winning = Interceptions / Opponents possession
  • Fluidity Net =  Quality of expected goals vs quality of expected goals allowed
  • Attack Efficiency = Expected goals / Possession
  • Defense Efficiency  = Expected goals allowed  / Opp Possession
  • Ball Advancement Rating = Value each player adds to advancing the ball in each game 

The early results from the model are fantastic:

Moneyline:  28 plays, 50%, +5.03 units won
Over/Under: 26 plays, 62%, +7.33 units won
BTTS: 5 plays, 20%, -4.13 units won
Asian Handicap: 2 plays, 50%, +0.26 units won

Overall: 
EPL: 55 plays, 56%, +8.85 units
UCL: 7 plays, 28%, -0.36 units

 

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/epl-11-new-podcast-mark-riley-epl-update/

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